Almost two and half years after its implementation date in January 2016, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has served its purpose in every practical sense and now has reached its expiry date.
“Will Trump Continue the Iran Nuclear Deal?” (Dec 2016) discussed the effect of Trump’s election on the implementation of the Iran nuclear deal, and how this implementation will suffer through lack of commitment from one or more parties.
Iran and the United States both chose a hostile approach during the JCPOA negotiations. The Reluctant Factor® played a role in reaching the agreement. They gambled in achieving a last-minute agreement, when both parties saw no choice but to temporarily agree to an outcome. This outcome only addressed their short term issues, ignoring the mid to long term problems. In short, a risky deal was made at the 11th hour with their hostile intentions resulting in an agreement based on mutual distrust.
A turning point has been forced by the US announcing its withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal – JCPOA. The United States and its allies (France, Germany, and the United Kingdom) have announced they would like to negotiate further with Iran to address some of the shortcomings of the JCPOA, and other concerns including Iran’s missile program and their meddling within the region.
Before the US withdrawal and Iran’s current discussions with the EU, Iran made it very clear that they have no intention of entering into any further negotiations with the US and its allies. Iran has provided many reasons for its unwillingness to renegotiate JCPOA or to engage in further negotiations on its missiles program, and its involvement in the region including lack of trusting the US administration which is even made more impossible by Trump’s lack of commitment to honouring The JCPOA.
In recent times, Iran has constantly criticised and complained that the United States has not complied with spirit of the nuclear deal, and that Iran has not received the full economic benefit under the JCPOA.
It is therefore unfathomable as to why Iran does not welcome the opportunity to improve on an unworkable deal. The answer is simple: Iran is out of moves, and has no more leverage to engage in negotiations with the US – a point well understood and utilised by President Trump.
Iran was experiencing a series of serious challenges even while JCPOA was still alive and operational. These issues ranged from environmental crises such as running out of water; economic crises including systematic corruption; political crises as recent as protests in over 100 cities in January 2018; and social issues including high levels of unemployment, illiteracy, and drug addiction.
Regardless, a lack of management competency; an ideological view to governance and foreign policy; hostility towards the US and Israel; and a corrupted financial system will see Iran’s path towards collapse with or without the JCPOA. The outcome would be the same, whether President Trump had kept the JCPOA or thrown it out of the window as he did on 8th May 2018.
From Trump’s point of view, this is the time to apply pressure to Iran, either to gain substantial concessions from Iran to cave in to the US and European demands, or push Iran to a point of regime change. It doesn’t matter whether the US continues the JCPOA or not. Rather, it’s about how additional pressure can be applied on Iran.
With the understanding that Iran has no hand to play, the US administration is focussing on putting Iran through several ‘checks’ before moving to a ‘checkmate’. In this game, Trump will move the European Union ‘piece’ into playing the ‘Good Cop, Bad Cop’ routine to his advantage.
Iran has severely miscalculated its options for a response to the US after exiting JCPOA. For example, take Iran’s threat of resuming its nuclear activities or exiting from the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty). Not only do these actions hold no benefit for Iran, it will increase the risk of a military attack against Iran and impact on Iran’s relationship with the Europeans.
Both Rouhani and Khamenei responded to the US exit from the JOCPA by continuing talks with the Europeans, exploring options to continue the JCPOA without the US. Even if this is possible and practical, one thing is for sure. At best, Iran has to maintain its obligation under the JCPOA but receive less benefits from it. At worst, Iran has to provide even more concessions to the EU in order to receive the EU’s support for Iran to receive partial benefits from the JCPOA.
Iran’s challenges extend well beyond the nuclear deal. On May 21st 2018 the US Secretary Pompeo’s speech brought into sharp relief, the fact that Iran’s challenges extend well beyond the nuclear deal. To find a solution out of its current dilemma, Iran need to consider a bigger picture than just the JCPOA. Even during its peak, the JCPOA did not deliver the results Iran expected. And from this point onwards, any further sanctions will apply great pressure on Iran’s economy and social problems.
This is a hostile dilemma that Iran faces, regardless of the US’s decision on the JCPOA. A wise process achieves success by avoiding the setup of a competitive and hostile environment. Iran needs to learn to better manage emotions and egos, and have a collaborative conversation if there is to be any hope for progress in further negotiations.
